Illinois State Library

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Title

• Feasibility of forecasting surface ozone concentrations in the Chicago area

Description

• Episodic controls on sources of ozone precursor gases have been suggested as an alternative to continuous controls as a strategy for reducing ozone concentrations to meet current air quality standards. To show the feasibility of episodic controls to meet ozone air quality standards, it is first necessary to show that it is feasible to forecast surface ozone concentrations with sufficient accuracy and sufficient lead time that episodic controls can be instituted. This study examined the feasibility of a statistical forecast of surface ozone concentrations in the Chicago area (Lake, Cook, and DuPage Counties), based on current concentrations and current and expected weather conditions. Forecast methods were developed using historical data on surface ozone concentrations and meteorological variables measured from 1990-1995. Overall, the study included: andlt;ULandgt; andlt;LIandgt;An extensive literature review and summary. andlt;LIandgt;Documentation of forecast methods used to call Ozone Action Days. andlt;LIandgt;Analysis of Ozone Action Days called in 1995-1997. andlt;LIandgt;Creation of air quality and meteorological databases. andlt;LIandgt;Examination of bivariate relationships between ozone and meteorological variables, including back trajectories on days with high ozone concentrations. andlt;LIandgt;Development of four forecasting approaches involving regression equations and two methods of adjusting or enhancing the results of the regression equations. andlt;LIandgt;Analyses of forecasts based on the four approaches.andlt;/LIandgt;andlt;/ULandgt;

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1. Feasibility of forecasting surface ozone concentrations in the Chicago area (20061002191133_ISWSCR2003-07.pdf).
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